China, a province of which was at the epicentre of the Covid-19 emergency, was officially speaking able to contain the pandemic as early as March. Although the economy did contract in the first quarter of the year (-6.8% of GDP), growth returned in the second quarter (+3.2%) and to an even greater extend in the third quarter (+4.9%). The recovery is reflected in unemployment figures in the country; in October the official rate was 5.3%, having returned to the pre-pandemic level. However just as in March, when unemployment was at 5.9%, some observers are questioning this official figure. Though we are certainly no longer talking about a potential (and taboo) rate of 20%, we do know that young people are much more seriously affected – in April the rate was already at 13.8% – and that situations of under-employment, and therefore loss of income, as well as poor employment have become widespread.
Looking at the country’s successes, China managed to create some 10.09 million urban jobs between January and October, exceeding its objective for the year – 9 million (see article n°11970) – two months ahead of schedule.
Unfortunately, official statistics, despite being an indispensable trend indicator, remain largely questionable. The unemployment rate, revised in 2018 on the basis of monthly surveys, is only applicable to urban areas and only takes into account the 31 largest cities in China and only very partially the some 291 million migrant workers who make up more than a third of the workforce.
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