News update as of February 13, 2019

Germany/260,000 immigrants required per annum. Just as the conservative political parties (CDU/CSU) are hardening their stance over immigration, and at a time when the country’s economy is eagerly awaiting final adoption of the ‘law on skilled immigration’, the highly respected Bertelsmann Foundation has chosen to publish  a broad study on Germany’s manpower needs out to 2060. The report’s authors estimate that by 2060 Germany will have lost 16 million in terms of active manpower and that it will need on average 260,000 immigrants per annum to ensure the country’s minimum requirements are met. The report’s calculations take into account the nation’s demographic profile and forecasts in terms of age and gender (aging population, increased female participation, increased older worker participation). One of the challenges facing Germany stems from the expected source of these immigration flows. Southern European economies are exiting acute recession conditions and they too are dealing with aging populations. As a result the number of European migrants looking to move to Germany is falling steeply. The study forecasts that only 114,000 EU originating migrants per annum will seek relocation to Germany in the years ahead, down significantly from 250,000 in 2017. Germany will thus have to ready itself for a sharp increase in influx from non-EU countries, of up to an average of 146,000 per annum. Only 40,000 non-EU immigrants entered Germany in 2017. These numbers provide an idea of the effort that will be needed at a time when German policy is struggling to agree on a suitable framework to ensure smooth transitions for these migrants.