2026 Trends – Retail organises itself in the face of the Trump trade war

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(Trend 4/6) Invested as President for a second term in 2025, Donald Trump has shaken global trade. Between higher customs duties, a tax on small parcels, attacks on diversity and inclusion policies alongside a government budget shutdown, US and European retail is reorganising to limit the impact on prices, margins and employment in a context of increased instability.
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The context

Sworn in as President on January 20, 2025, Donald Trump signed an Executive Order aimed at abolishing Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (D.E.I.) programmes within the federal administration and encouraging abandonment by large companies. While this order pushed several retail and tech retailers such as Target, Meta, Walmart and McDonald’s to review or give up such initiatives the world’s n°2 food retailer Costco decided to maintain commitments despite attacks from 19 States.

After D.E.I. policies, Trump turned to foreign trade, applying increased customs duties on imports from several markets including Europe, Latin America and Asia. Since August 7, 2025, most European imports have been taxed at a minimum rate of 15%. Fashion, luxury, wines and spirits as well as small e-commerce parcels under 800 dollars, previously exempt, fall under this threshold.

In food retail, the U.S.A. mainly imports from Central and Latin America. In Brazil, customs duties on beef and coffee were reduced from 50% to 40% in November 2025 after having sent prices soaring up by 16.4% for beef and up by 18.7% for coffee in the U.S.A. (annual change at the end of December 2025 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics). An instability that forces retailers to rewrite strategy.

The strong and weak signals

 – Exports to the U.S.A. are faltering.

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