[Food Retail Barometer 2024] The financial health of the world’s 10 largest food retailers in 7 charts

For a fourth consecutive year, mind Retail compiled and analysed the financial indicators of the world’s largest food retailers marking revenue, retail sales growth, online sales share, operating margin, net margin and market capitalisation (see methodology). This barometer includes 10 global leaders in the sector. These are Walmart, Costco, Kroger, Target, Ahold Delhaize, Seven & I, Carrefour, Albertsons, Tesco and Aeon. We compare  respective performances from 2017 to 2024. As Aldi has not published annual results since 2021, it could not be included in the panel. Schwarz Group, owner of Kaufland and Aldi, will be included in this analysis at a later stage, as it publishes indicators later than the others, at the end of May.

In Europe and the US, food inflation reached 1.9% in 2024

This year, the food distribution sector has again been marked by considerable instability (inflation, wars, supply chain tensions), and continued significant consumer spending trade-offs. In the Eurozone, the HICP (harmonised index of consumer prices) fell by 3 points in a year, to a rise of 2.4% between December 2023 and December 2024. In the food sector, the increase was 1.9% (Eurostat), a sharp slowdown. As a reminder, food inflation rose by 11.8% in 2023, after a rise of 10.5% in 2022. Over a rolling 3-year period, food inflation reached 25.4%.

In France, where food inflation stands at 1.8% in 2024, sales volumes of FMCG/FLS continued to fall. In 2024, according to Circana, the decline reached 0.9% across all channels (e-commerce, hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience stores and discount stores), following a decline of 3.1% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2022. Taking 2021 as a base of 100, the decline reached 8.1% in volume over 3 years. In terms of value, the average basket fell by 2% in a year. “With prices 21% higher than in 2021 on average in supermarkets, French consumers remain vigilant about the amount they spend on their daily shopping”, said a Circana Spokesperson.

Under pressure from soaring food prices, rising wages, employer contributions, higher energy costs and supply chain tensions, European food retailers are seeing margins erode. To maintain profitability, they are focusing on large-scale consolidation. According to Kantar, the most profitable retailers in Europe are on average 35-50% larger than competitors, with an EBITDA margin 0.8 point higher. This scale allows them to invest heavily in purchasing, logistics automation, technology, AI and their own brands. Against this backdrop, mergers and acquisitions in the food sector increased by 31% since 2019 in Europe. Following the example of Ahold Delhaize, which has made 2 acquisitions in Belgium and Romania, large retailers are seeking to strengthen their synergies across several countries. According to Daniel Ducrocq, VP of retailer services for Western Europe at NielsenIQ, “concentration is almost inevitable in many countries. Overall, we see that the leaders are doing well, but those at the bottom of the pack are struggling and some will disappear. There is considerable concern about profitability. We saw this in France in 2024 (Cora and Casino), in Belgium (Mestdagh by Intermarché in 2023) and in Sweden (City Gross by Axfood)”.  In the US, inflation was more moderate. The HICP fell by 0.4 point to 2.6% in 2024. For food products, it fell by nearly 3 points to 1.9%, a level equivalent to Europe. At the end of November 2024, food sales in value terms (directly impacted by inflation) in the US increased by 1.2% year-on-year.