In 2022, according to the Banque de France, the country’s central bank, companies were granting 5% pay rises on average as part of agreements resulting from compulsory annual negotiations (NAO), driven by a context of high inflation and industrial unrest. Three years on, the labour market is no longer marked by widespread manpower shortages, but by redundancy plans. Michel Houdebine, director of the research, studies and statistics office (DARES) at the French labour ministry, told the parliamentary commission of inquiry into the “failure of public authorities to deal with the proliferation of redundancy plans” that the number of redundancy plans had risen by 27% in one year. While this trend remains moderate, the number of contracts terminated in this context has risen by 131%. This phenomenon, coupled with a fall in the number of jobs created, is changing the balance of power in wage negotiations. “Negotiations are based on companies’ economic room for manoeuvre and their need for attractiveness,” explains Julien Gournay, an expert at Syndex, which advises social and economic committees (ESC) in France. “They are also linked to the social climate and the ability of the social partners to put forward compensation demands.” The Banque de France’s annual survey points to average increases of 2.1% for this year’s NAO, compared with 3.3% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2023.
mind RH sought to verify the reality at large companies, the driving forces of the French economy due to their internationalisation and organisations where collective bargaining is nurtured. In order to analyse wage dynamics at these groups, we have compiled a panel of 117 compulsory annual negotiation (NAO) agreements from 82 companies with over 500 employees, belonging to our database of 174 groups in 12 different major sectors (see methodology). 87 of these agreements cover the year 2024, and 30, signed up to the end of February, cover the year 2025.
Fewer and smaller collective pay increases
For 2024, with price rises remaining strong at the start of the period (4.6% inflation in September 2023), almost three out of four agreements (73%) mentioned collective or general pay rises for employees of the companies concerned. This is only the case for six out of ten agreements in 2025. For example, at online bank Boursobank (formerly Boursorama), where a collective increase of 2.5% for employees earning up to €45,000 gross per annum was obtained for last year, management has not granted a budget in this framework for 2025, despite the CFDT’s demand for a 2% increase. In the agreement signed on 2 January, the CFDT cites falling inflation as the main reason. The allocation of general increases in the form of fixed amounts is also down, representing 12.5% in 2025 of those granting a collective increase, compared with 28% the previous year.
Collective increases negotiated in NAO agreements are not only rarer, they are also lower.
